CBRE has looked into major areas of Hong Kong residential property market for 2025.

Eddie Kwok, Executive Director, Valuation & Advisory Services, CBRE Hong Kong shares highlights of the findings; 

Primary market will see volume growth at stable prices

• After a record low of 10,000 units in 2022-2023, primary sales rebounded to 17,000 units in 2024, matching the 2017-2021 average. We anticipate a 10% growth in 2025, with 18,000-20,000 units sold if interest rates drop further.

Secondary market will see price rebound from a low base

• We estimate secondary market returning to the 2017-2020 average of 41,953 units, with a 10% rebound to nearly 40,000 units in 2025, as drive by low tax after the removal of property curbs, solid economic fundamentals and tenant to homeowner shift.

Overall Transaction Volume

• Estimate: Close to 60,000 transactions (~10% year-on-year growth), with primary sales contributing around 18,000 to 20,000 units and approximately 40,000 from secondary sales.
• Impact of Easing Borrowing Rates: Lower mortgage payments compared to rental costs can encourage tenants to become homeowners, increasing demand in both primary and secondary markets.

Residential Price

• Overall: A mild recovery of 0% to 5%.
• Newer Properties (Below 20 Years Old): Expected to experience recovery or price stabilization.
• Older Properties (More Than 40 Years Old): Likely to lag behind.
• Rising Rental Demand: Particularly for one- and two-bedroom units, can drive investment in the primary market. Higher rental yields can attract investors, supporting price stabilization or growth.
• Residential Rental Market
• Rental Growth: Likely to continue its upward trajectory with approximately 5% growth in FY2025.
• Luxury Residential
• Price Normalization: Prices are expected to revert to normal after the market digested significant distressed sales in 2024.

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