In view of robust activities in the private residential market, the government has increased the number of residential units in the Confirmed List by 25% for the 2H21GLS Programme, in comparison with the Confirmed List of 1H21 GLS. In terms of percentage growth, the highest increase in Confirmed List units since 2H2016 when confirmed list units was increased by 39%. Notably, this ties in with a pickup in enbloc activities, higher interest from developers for reserve list sites and dwindling unsold inventory. Unsold inventory as of 1Q2021 is around 21,634 and this compares with 23,282 units in 2Q2016.

However, the absolute number of units released in Confirmed List remains relatively low, at 2,000 units. This is far from the 7,000 to 8,000 private residential units released in the Confirmed List during 2H10 and 2H12 GLS, amidst the housing boom post global financial crisis.

Amidst economic uncertainties, the government is erring on the side of caution and leaving most of the units in the reserve list, allowing the market to dictate market supply. The reserve list can potentially provide about 4,860 residential units. In total, the total number of private residential units in both confirmed and reserve list comes up to 6,860 units. This is slightly lower than 7045 available units (confirmed and reserve) in the 1H21 GLS programme.

Amidst low levels of unsold inventories and robust activities in the private residential market, competition for Confirmed List sites is expected to be high. Developers will be looking towards the reserve list and the enbloc market to replenish their landbanks. Also, the sites on the confirmed and reserve list are mostly mid to large sites, smaller developers looking to acquire smallish sites will have to look towards the enbloc market.

PWithin the Confirmed List, the Bukit Batok West Ave 8 EC site is expected to be highly sought after. The last EC site in the west was Tengah Garden Walk EC site which attracted 7 bids and a top bid of $604 psf ppr. Additionally, market demand for ECs remains healthy, as seen from the strong take up of over 50% for Provence Residence at launch. Unsold inventory for launched EC projects are now at about 603 units, with all projects at least 50% sold. There will only be one more EC launch this year, Parc Greenwich.

Within the reserve list, the Lentor Hills Road (parcel B) site could garner interest from developers. This is the smallest site in the GLS and will benefit from an accessibility boost with the completion of the Thomson East Coast Line. The tender closing of Lentor Central (from 1H21 GLS) in July will be keenly watched to gauge demand for this site.

The Marina View white site was triggered for sale from the Reserve List, after an unnamed developer has committed to bid at least $1.5billion for the site. The last time a reserve list site was triggered was in 2H18 GLS programme, when the Anchorvale Crescent EC site was triggered. The Central Boulevard white site was the last white site that was sold in Marina Bay. The Central Boulevard white site (reserve price: $1.5 billion) was eventually sold to IOI Properties Group for $2.6 billion in 2016. IOI is developing Central Boulevard Towers (predominately office) on the site. On the other hand, the Marina View white site is different as the site is envisaged to be developed as a residential and hotel development (905 private residential units, 540 hotel rooms, 2000 sqm of commercial space) with a small retail component. Therefore, the main play here is on the growth of the private residential market in the CBD and the recovery of the hotel market.

The triggering of the marina view white site, follows shortly after the enbloc sale of Maxwell house, which is poised to be redeveloped into a commercial and residential mixed-use development. Both are located within district 1. With more family offices setting up shop in Singapore, demand for prime residential units within the CBD is expected to rise. The last major project launched in District 1 was Marina One Residences and the project is said to be almost sold out (estimated around 90% sold). We have observed an increase in transactions at Marina One Residences last year. There were a total of 185 units transacted (including both new sales and resales) in 2020, higher than 140 unit transacted in 2019.